Analysis of the trend of short-term cotton market at home and abroad

The previous ICE cotton fell sharply, and China’s recent reserves remained high. US cotton is the export season.

Although the export volume of US cotton is relatively large, the actual shipment volume is quite different from that of previous years. This year's international resource situation is different from that of previous years. The global high output (excluding the United States) plus the consumption slump, supply and demand The dual pressures on the US squeezed the US cotton export market. The US cotton exports were affected by the southern hemisphere, and the ICE weak situation was difficult to change.

However, with the gradual listing of new cotton in the United States, the recovery of export volume at the end of the year is a high-probability event. At the same time, domestic quotas should be used as much as possible at the end of the year. Therefore, the import volume of US cotton should be relatively large, coupled with the large discount of cotton now, The short-term stabilization and recovery of ICE can be seen.

The national cotton reserves have been at a high level, reaching an average of 35,000 tons per day. According to this schedule, as of the end of March next year, it is possible to receive more than 3 million tons of reserve.

Affected by this, the recent market appears to be worried about domestic resources after the end of the purchase.

Last year, China’s cotton production was about 5 million tons, and the statistics of all institutions this year were more than 7 million tons, and the rules for storage and storage clearly stated that it was possible to pay for grade 4 cotton, which provided favorable conditions for the inland cotton deposit.

Secondly, this year's high cotton production in the southern hemisphere has caused domestic traders not to focus their purchases on the domestic market because of their concerns about deposits. They signed contracts for cotton in the southern hemisphere in advance. This year, China’s cotton imports show the obvious characteristics of the off-season growth. The end of the year is the concentration period for US cotton to Hong Kong, and it is expected that the high level of imports will be maintained.

Again, due to the fall in global cotton prices, India, Pakistan, and other major textile countries have been hit, and domestic cotton yarn hoarding is serious. Last year, China imported cotton yarn because of the problem of alternative functions of chemical fiber and high cotton prices, but entered the second half of the year. Imports of cotton yarns are rapidly picking up and the monthly growth rate is above 20%, which also squeezes the demand for domestic cotton to some extent.

In the end, the Chinese textile industry suffered winter, especially the sales of cloths were particularly unfavorable this year. According to statistics of the China Cotton Information Center, as of November, the inventories of cloth factories remained at more than 40 days, which was in contrast with the high prices in previous years. .

Taken together, the recent trend of Zheng cotton is still difficult to trend, the actual price will not run off 20,400 yuan / ton.

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